UEFA Europa League Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Benfica v AGF Aarhus Correct Score Prediction

Benfica

3-0

AGF Aarhus

Kick-off: 19:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score3-0

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultBenfica win 1.17BTTSNo 2.00O/UOver 2.5 1.30FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginBenfica by 3 goals View odds

Final score3-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score3-09.7%

Expected goals2.88 – 0.84Benfica / AGF Aarhus

Most likely scorelines

#12-010.1%

#23-09.7%

#32-18.4%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.9%	1.5%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
1	6.5%	6.4%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%
2	10.1%	8.4%	3.5%	1.0%	0.2%
3	9.7%	8.1%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%
4	7.0%	5.8%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.7%

Model fair odds10.32

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-5.7 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-37.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published19 Aug 2026 · 18:46 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-0

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.17View odds

Draw6.50View odds

Away12.00View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.73View odds

Both teams to score — No2.00View odds

Over 2.51.30View odds

Under 2.53.30View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

Benfica hold a major quality advantage and strong home record, while AGF have been inconsistent defensively. Sustained pressure should create enough chances for comfortable victory.

→ 3-0

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy