Prediction summary
Correct score2-0
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultBraga win 1.30↗BTTSNo 1.85↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.30↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginBraga by 2 goals View odds↗
Final score2-0Result status: won
UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Braga v Austria Vienna Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-011.8%
Expected goals2.28 – 0.82Braga / Austria Vienna
Most likely scorelines
#12-011.8%
#21-09.6%
#32-19.6%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.8% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 8.9% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate11.8%
Model fair odds8.50
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-3.6 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-23.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Braga possess stronger European pedigree, home advantage and influential Ricardo Horta. Austria Vienna may miss attacking options, increasing the chance of a Braga clean sheet.
→ 2-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy