Prediction summary
Correct score0-1
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultRiga FC win 1.85↗BTTSNo 2.25↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.20↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginRiga FC by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score0-18.0%
Expected goals1.22 – 1.74Klaksvik / Riga FC
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.1%
#21-29.6%
#30-18.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.0%
Model fair odds12.57
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-6.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-44.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Klaksvik are formidable at home, yet Riga arrive in outstanding form and carry stronger overall balance. A disciplined away display could produce a narrow victory.
→ 0-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy