UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Lugano v Maccabi Tel Aviv Correct Score Prediction

Lugano

2-1

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Kick-off: 18:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds9.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultLugano win 1.95BTTSYes 1.75O/UOver 2.5 1.91FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginLugano by 1 goal View odds

Final score2-1Result status: won

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-19.3%

Expected goals1.53 – 1.11Lugano / Maccabi Tel Aviv

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.9%

#21-010.3%

#32-19.3%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	7.2%	4.4%	1.6%	0.4%
1	10.3%	12.9%	6.7%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.4%	9.3%	5.1%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.3%	4.7%	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.6%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.3%

Model fair odds10.80

Recorded CS odds9.00

Bookmaker implied11.1%

Model-market gap-1.8 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-16.6%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published19 Aug 2026 · 18:46 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.95View odds

Draw3.40View odds

Away3.40View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.75View odds

Both teams to score — No2.00View odds

Over 2.51.91View odds

Under 2.51.83View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

Lugano have won five of six, while Maccabi also arrive in excellent form. Both attacks are producing consistently, making a narrow, high-quality home victory plausible.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy