Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultPAOK win 1.65↗BTTSYes 1.73↗O/UOver 2.5 1.80↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginPAOK by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-19.8%
Expected goals1.76 – 0.97PAOK / Brann
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.5%
#22-010.1%
#31-010.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.1% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.8%
Model fair odds10.20
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-2.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-21.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
PAOK hold home advantage and European pedigree, but Brann arrive in strong form and can score. A competitive contest should be decided narrowly by hosts.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy