Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 13.3% | 14.4% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Rayo lose true home advantage by playing at Butarque, while Alaves arrive encouraged by their opener. A tight tactical contest still marginally favours Rayo overall.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
