Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultRouen win 1.75↗BTTSYes 1.91↗O/UOver 2.5 2.05↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginRouen by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score3-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-19.3%
Expected goals1.54 – 0.92Rouen / Quevilly
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.5%
#21-011.8%
#32-010.1%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11.8% | 13.5% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.1% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.3%
Model fair odds10.73
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-3.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-25.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Rouen sit higher early in the table and hold a favourable long-term H2H record. Quevilly remain vulnerable away, making a narrow home victory the preference.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy