UEFA Europa League Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Trabzonspor v Ferencvaros Correct Score Prediction

Trabzonspor

1-1

Ferencvaros

Kick-off: 17:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.90BTTSYes 1.70O/UUnder 2.5 2.05FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score0-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-110.9%

Expected goals1.86 – 1.03Trabzonspor / Ferencvaros

Most likely scorelines

#11-110.9%

#21-010.1%

#32-19.9%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	5.4%	2.9%	1.0%	0.3%
1	10.1%	10.9%	5.5%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.7%	9.9%	5.1%	1.7%	0.4%
3	6.0%	6.1%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.8%	2.9%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate10.9%

Model fair odds9.16

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-4.5 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-29.1%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published19 Aug 2026 · 18:46 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.60View odds

Draw3.90View odds

Away4.50View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.70View odds

Both teams to score — No2.05View odds

Over 2.51.67View odds

Under 2.52.05View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

Trabzonspor remain dangerous at home, especially with Salah involved, yet Ferencvaros arrive experienced and settled. Both sides should score in a balanced first-leg European draw.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy