Prediction summary
Correct score2-2
Correct score odds10.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.50↗O/UOver 2.5 1.65↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-0Result status: lost
Danish 1st Division · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Vendsyssel v Hillerod Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-26.2%
Expected goals1.54 – 1.43Vendsyssel / Hillerod
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.8%
#22-18.7%
#31-28.1%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate6.2%
Model fair odds16.10
Recorded CS odds10.00
Bookmaker implied10.0%
Model-market gap-3.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-37.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Both sides have defensive concerns and their recent H2H meetings regularly produce goals. Vendsyssel have the slight home edge, but another score draw looks credible.
→ 2-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy