Prediction summary
Correct score3-0
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultArsenal win 1.18↗BTTSNo 1.57↗O/UOver 2.5 1.53↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginArsenal by 3 goals View odds↗
Final score3-0Result status: won
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-012.0%
Expected goals2.57 – 0.59Arsenal / Coventry
Most likely scorelines
#12-014.1%
#23-012.0%
#31-010.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 12.0% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 7.7% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.0%
Model fair odds8.31
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-3.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-21.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Arsenal begin as overwhelming favourites with superior depth, home advantage and championship pedigree. Coventry may defend deeply, but sustained pressure should produce a comfortable win.
→ 3-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy