Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 2.90↗BTTSYes 1.91↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.60↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-1Result status: won
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.7%
Expected goals1.06 – 1.28Boulogne / Red Star
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.7%
#20-011.3%
#30-110.6%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 14.7% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.7%
Model fair odds6.79
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-1.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-11.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Boulogne and Red Star look closely matched early in Ligue 2. Neither side holds a decisive attacking edge, making a cautious score draw attractive overall.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy