Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDundalk win 1.73↗BTTSNo 2.25↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.25↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginDundalk by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-08.2%
Expected goals1.88 – 1.18Dundalk / Galway
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.1%
#22-19.8%
#32-08.3%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.2%
Model fair odds12.26
Recorded CS odds7.50
Bookmaker implied13.3%
Model-market gap-5.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-38.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Dundalk's organisation and home advantage provide the edge against a disciplined Galway side. With neither attack consistently explosive, one goal could settle this tight encounter.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy