Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultUCD win 2.45↗BTTSYes 1.57↗O/UOver 2.5 1.73↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginUCD by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-28.5%
Expected goals1.38 – 1.44Kerry / UCD
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.7%
#21-28.5%
#32-18.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 13.7% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.5%
Model fair odds11.72
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-4.0 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-31.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
UCD carry greater attacking quality and experience at this level, while Kerry remain dangerous at home. Expect a match with visitors finding the decisive strike.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy