Prediction summary
Correct score2-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultOpava win 1.70↗BTTSNo 2.05↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.00↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginOpava by 2 goals View odds↗
Final score2-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-09.2%
Expected goals1.78 – 1.07Opava / Trinec
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.2%
#22-19.8%
#31-09.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 12.2% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.2% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.2%
Model fair odds10.86
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-5.1 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-35.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Opava possess stronger home credentials and should control territory against Trinec. If their defence maintains recent discipline, sustained pressure can produce a deserved two-goal victory.
→ 2-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy