Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.85↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-0Result status: lost
Spanish La Liga Primera · Friday, 21 August 2026
Real Betis v Real Sociedad Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.4%
Expected goals1.51 – 1.13Real Betis / Real Sociedad
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.4%
#21-09.5%
#32-19.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.4%
Model fair odds7.47
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.0 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-12.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Betis and Sociedad are closely matched, both carrying quality but some availability concerns. A tactical, balanced contest with limited margins makes a score draw appealing.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy