Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-1
San Telmo and Moron typically produce tight, low-scoring contests, but the visitors' recent defensive stability offers a slight edge. One second-half goal may settle proceedings.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
