| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Waterford have exposed Sligo's defensive weaknesses emphatically this season. Sligo should improve at home, but the visitors' sharper attacking transitions can decide another open contest.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
