Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultTondela win 1.91↗BTTSNo 1.80↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.70↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginTondela by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-011.4%
Expected goals1.46 – 0.99Tondela / Academica
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.7%
#21-011.4%
#30-09.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11.4% | 13.7% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.3% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate11.4%
Model fair odds8.77
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-20.2%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Tondela's home organisation and greater recent top-level experience should matter in a cautious contest. Academica can resist, but one precise home attack may prove decisive.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy