Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 2.90↗BTTSYes 1.80↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.67↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score3-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.8%
Expected goals1.25 – 1.20Vicenza / Catanzaro
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.8%
#20-010.5%
#31-08.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.8%
Model fair odds6.74
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-1.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-11.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Vicenza's home energy meets a technically capable Catanzaro side in an early-season contest with limited form evidence. Balanced midfield quality points toward a measured draw.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy