| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Brentford remain dangerous from transitions and set pieces, while Tottenham travel with numerous fitness concerns. Home organisation can exploit absences and secure a narrow victory.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
