Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.25↗BTTSYes 1.80↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.70↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-1Result status: won
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.5%
Expected goals1.22 – 1.27Bromley / Cambridge
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.5%
#20-19.8%
#31-09.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.5%
Model fair odds7.38
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-1.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-12.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Bromley hold home advantage, but Cambridge remain unbeaten in their recent meetings and started brightly. A balanced contest with limited separation points towards another draw.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy