Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| 1 | 2.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Dortmund’s home energy should create chances, but Bayern carry greater attacking depth and experience in major matches. Expect an open Super Cup decided by finishing.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
