Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.20↗BTTSYes 1.67↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.85↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-2Result status: lost
William Hill Scottish Premiership · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Dundee Utd v Dundee Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.8%
Expected goals1.47 – 1.21Dundee Utd / Dundee
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.8%
#22-19.0%
#30-08.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 13.8% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.8%
Model fair odds7.22
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-2.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
United are winless in four and missing Will Ferry, while Dundee enter the derby with renewed attacking options. Rivalry pressure makes a draw very plausible.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy