Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| 2 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-2
Espanyol are missing important attackers and a suspended defender, while Madrid possess far greater quality. Sustained pressure should eventually turn territorial dominance into two goals.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
