Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultEstoril win 1.91↗BTTSYes 1.70↗O/UOver 2.5 1.83↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginEstoril by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-19.5%
Expected goals1.63 – 1.09Estoril / Rio Ave
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.1%
#22-19.5%
#31-09.4%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.5%
Model fair odds10.50
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-3.0 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-23.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Estoril’s home initiative should produce more chances, but Rio Ave remain organised and dangerous on the break. A tight Primeira Liga contest favours the hosts.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy