Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.85↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-0Result status: lost
English Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Everton v Crystal Palace Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.4%
Expected goals1.46 – 1.18Everton / Crystal Palace
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.4%
#21-09.3%
#32-19.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 13.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.4%
Model fair odds7.44
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-1.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-12.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Everton’s home edge meets a Palace side entering under new management after an excellent season. Tight margins, midfield duels and caution strongly point towards stalemate.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy