Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultMan Utd win 1.36↗BTTSYes 1.95↗O/UOver 2.5 1.62↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginMan Utd by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score2-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.6%
Expected goals0.79 – 2.21Hull / Man Utd
Most likely scorelines
#10-212.2%
#20-110.6%
#31-29.6%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 4.9% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| 2 | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.6%
Model fair odds10.40
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-23.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
United possess superior quality and midfield depth, while injury-hit Hull face a difficult return to the top flight. Expect sustained pressure to decide this opener.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy