Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultBray win 2.05↗BTTSYes 1.55↗O/UOver 2.5 1.67↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginBray by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score4-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.2%
Expected goals1.28 – 1.60Longford / Bray
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.8%
#21-29.2%
#30-17.6%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.2%
Model fair odds10.88
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-3.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-26.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Bray carry the stronger attacking profile and should find spaces against Longford, though the hosts can threaten. Visiting efficiency strongly supports a narrow away win.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy