Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.25↗BTTSYes 1.73↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.83↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-1Result status: lost
English Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Nottingham Forest v Leeds Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.7%
Expected goals1.40 – 1.21Nottingham Forest / Leeds
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.7%
#21-09.0%
#32-18.7%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.7%
Model fair odds7.30
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-1.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-10.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Forest begin another managerial era, while Leeds arrive settled and dangerous after a positive summer. Both attacks should create chances, making a score draw plausible.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy