Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.10↗BTTSYes 1.65↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.85↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-2Result status: lost
Turkish Super Lig · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Rizespor v Samsunspor Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.1%
Expected goals1.50 – 1.17Rizespor / Samsunspor
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.1%
#22-19.1%
#30-08.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 14.1% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.1%
Model fair odds7.07
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-1.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-8.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Rizespor’s home edge meets a Samsunspor side capable of counter-attacking efficiently. Neither looks dominant enough to control throughout, making a balanced score draw very attractive.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy