Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultVietnam win 2.25↗BTTSYes 1.91↗O/UOver 2.5 2.25↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginVietnam by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-28.3%
Expected goals1.05 – 1.26Thailand / Vietnam
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.8%
#20-011.6%
#30-110.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.3%
Model fair odds12.07
Recorded CS odds8.50
Bookmaker implied11.8%
Model-market gap-3.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-29.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Thailand hold the stronger historical H2H, but unbeaten Vietnam arrive in excellent tournament form. Current momentum and defensive discipline can edge a tight away victory.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy