Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.10↗BTTSYes 1.91↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.67↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-0Result status: lost
Spanish La Liga Primera · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Valencia v Celta Vigo Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.1%
Expected goals1.33 – 1.10Valencia / Celta Vigo
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.1%
#21-010.5%
#30-010.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 14.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.1%
Model fair odds7.09
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-1.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-8.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Valencia face a Celta side who have won four of their last six meetings. Mestalla advantage matters, but recent H2H strength makes Celta dangerous throughout.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy