Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultWalsall win 2.75↗BTTSYes 1.83↗O/UOver 2.5 2.10↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginWalsall by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-17.6%
Expected goals1.18 – 1.27Walsall / Grimsby
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.7%
#20-110.2%
#30-09.4%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 13.7% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.0% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate7.6%
Model fair odds13.11
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-4.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-39.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Walsall’s home intensity and physical approach should trouble Grimsby, though the visitors remain capable in transition. Expect a close contest narrowly edged by the hosts.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy