Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultWigan win 2.15↗BTTSYes 1.80↗O/UOver 2.5 2.10↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginWigan by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-2Result status: lost
English League 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Wigan v Leyton Orient Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-18.8%
Expected goals1.37 – 1.08Wigan / Leyton Orient
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.1%
#21-010.5%
#30-010.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.8%
Model fair odds11.41
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-3.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-29.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Wigan’s home structure should keep this controlled, while Orient carry enough attacking threat to score. Fine margins suggest a narrow home victory rather than dominance.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy