Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.60↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.91↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-2Result status: lost
Spanish La Liga Primera · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Atletico Madrid v Villarreal Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-112.5%
Expected goals1.65 – 1.06Atletico Madrid / Villarreal
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.5%
#21-010.2%
#32-19.6%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.5%
Model fair odds8.03
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-19.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Atletico won their opener but lacked fluency without key forwards, while Villarreal remain dangerous and finished above them last season. A balanced draw looks persuasive.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy