Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 12.9% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Brighton face a short European turnaround and several attacking absences, while Villa retain greater final-third quality. The visitors can exploit fatigue and defensive transitions.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
