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Argentinian Primera Nacional · Sunday, 23 August 2026

Chacarita v San Martin Tucuman Correct Score Prediction

Chacarita1-1San Martin Tucuman

Kick-off:

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0
Published score1-115.0%
Expected goals1.00 – 0.91Chacarita / San Martin Tucuman

Most likely scorelines

#10-016.3%
#21-115.0%
#31-013.3%
View score probability matrix
Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →01234
016.3%11.9%6.1%1.9%0.4%
113.3%15.0%6.1%1.9%0.4%
27.4%6.8%3.1%0.9%0.2%
32.5%2.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%
40.6%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0
Model estimate15.0%
Model fair odds6.67
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-1.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-10.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published22 Aug 2026 · 07:32 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.62View odds
Draw2.62View odds
Away3.00View odds
Both teams to score — Yes2.38View odds
Both teams to score — No1.53View odds
Over 2.53.10View odds
Under 2.51.33View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

Chacarita and San Martin remain inconsistent, while their recent H2H includes several low-scoring draws. With both attacks modest, another controlled one-all outcome looks most plausible.

→ 1-1
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How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy