Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.00↗BTTSYes 1.70↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.75↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-2Result status: lost
Brazilian Serie A · Sunday, 23 August 2026
EC Vitoria v Bahia Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.7%
Expected goals1.30 – 1.24EC Vitoria / Bahia
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.7%
#20-09.8%
#31-08.3%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 14.7% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.7%
Model fair odds6.82
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-0.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-4.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The Bahia derby should be intense and physical, with rivalry often reducing attacking freedom. Neither side looks clearly superior, so a cautious score draw remains sensible.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy