| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 5.4% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 4.7% |
| 2 | 1.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-2
Elche showed resilience in their opener, but Barcelona possess vastly greater attacking quality despite midfield injuries. Sustained possession should eventually create a controlled two-goal away victory.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
