Prediction summary
Correct score0-2
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultMonaco win 1.85↗BTTSNo 2.40↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.38↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginMonaco by 2 goals View odds↗
Final score0-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score0-27.5%
Expected goals1.27 – 1.84Le Havre / Monaco
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.2%
#21-29.6%
#30-27.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate7.5%
Model fair odds13.28
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-6.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-47.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Monaco possess greater speed, depth and final-third quality, while Le Havre remain vulnerable when pinned back. The visitors should control territory and win without conceding.
→ 0-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy