| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Newcastle enter a major rebuild without Joelinton, while Liverpool also carry defensive injuries. The visitors' superior attacking quality and stronger recent H2H record narrowly prevail.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
