Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultPorto win 1.20↗BTTSYes 2.15↗O/UOver 2.5 1.55↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginPorto by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score2-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-18.8%
Expected goals2.44 – 0.66Porto / Arouca
Most likely scorelines
#12-013.5%
#21-011.1%
#33-010.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13.5% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 10.9% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.8%
Model fair odds11.32
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-3.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-29.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Porto are perfect domestically and defensively excellent, but Arouca arrive on four straight wins and score freely. Expect the champions to edge a competitive contest.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy