Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultRijeka win 1.40↗BTTSNo 1.91↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.20↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginRijeka by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score3-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-09.8%
Expected goals2.15 – 0.85Rijeka / Istra
Most likely scorelines
#12-011.5%
#21-110.1%
#32-19.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.5% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.2% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.8%
Model fair odds10.25
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-4.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-31.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Rijeka retain home favouritism, but recent meetings with Istra have repeatedly been tight and low-scoring. Territorial control without many chances points to a narrow win.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy