Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 14.9% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Santa Clara are resilient at home and arrive in encouraging form, while Famalicao remain draw-prone. Goncalo Paciencia's scoring form gives the hosts a narrow advantage.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
