Argentinian Primera Liga Profesional · Sunday, 23 August 2026

Sarmiento v Estudiantes LP Correct Score Prediction

Sarmiento

1-1

Estudiantes LP

Kick-off: 17:45 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 2.80BTTSYes 2.10O/UUnder 2.5 1.44FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score2-0Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.9%

Expected goals0.96 – 1.20Sarmiento / Estudiantes LP

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.9%

#20-013.2%

#30-112.3%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.2%	12.3%	8.3%	3.3%	1.0%
1	9.5%	14.9%	8.0%	3.2%	1.0%
2	5.3%	6.4%	3.8%	1.5%	0.5%
3	1.7%	2.0%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%
4	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.9%

Model fair odds6.71

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-0.5 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-3.2%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published22 Aug 2026 · 07:32 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home3.25View odds

Draw2.80View odds

Away2.30View odds

Both teams to score — Yes2.10View odds

Both teams to score — No1.67View odds

Over 2.52.50View odds

Under 2.51.44View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

Sarmiento have won three successive league matches, but Estudiantes arrive buoyed by a superb Libertadores victory. Momentum exists on both sides, making a tight draw attractive.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy