Prediction summary
Correct score0-1
Correct score odds8.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultBurgos win 2.90↗BTTSNo 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.50↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginBurgos by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-0Result status: lost
Spanish Segunda · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Sporting Gijon v Burgos Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score0-19.9%
Expected goals1.19 – 1.06Sporting Gijon / Burgos
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.6%
#20-011.9%
#31-011.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11.2% | 14.6% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.9%
Model fair odds10.13
Recorded CS odds8.50
Bookmaker implied11.8%
Model-market gap-1.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Sporting were flat in their scoreless opener and may alter shape, while Burgos arrive confident after victory. A compact match could tilt towards the sharper visitors.
→ 0-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy