Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.60↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.85↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-112.5%
Expected goals1.00 – 1.68Torino / AC Milan
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.5%
#20-110.5%
#30-29.7%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.5%
Model fair odds7.99
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-18.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Torino enter in stronger recent form and have defended well, while Milan rebuild under Amorim with attacking injuries. A cautious opener increasingly points towards a draw.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy