Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.20↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.80↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score5-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.8%
Expected goals1.51 – 1.09Torque / Wanderers
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.8%
#21-09.7%
#32-19.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.8%
Model fair odds7.24
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-17.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Torque favour possession while Wanderers are comfortable without the ball, creating a tactical stalemate. Neither side holds enough attacking superiority to justify moving away from one-all.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy