Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.57↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.10↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-1Result status: lost
Turkish Super Lig · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Trabzonspor v Istanbul Basaksehir Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-112.9%
Expected goals1.63 – 1.28Trabzonspor / Istanbul Basaksehir
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.9%
#22-19.3%
#31-07.3%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 12.9% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.9%
Model fair odds7.73
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-15.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Trabzonspor face European fatigue and several injuries after a midweek defeat, while Basaksehir started strongly. Home advantage remains important, but a balanced draw looks safer.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy