| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 14.1% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
West Brom arrive in outstanding winning form despite Heggebo's suspension, while Burnley remain winless in normal time. Home momentum should produce another narrow Championship victory.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
